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04/19/2007: "Overall Good News In Real Estate Values"

By Merri Ann Simonson

In reviewing the first quarter results for 2007, the real estate market volumes
on San Juan, Orcas and Lopez. and other islands. are overall lower than the same period in 2006. However, here are the current median price numbers:

On San Juan island, median sales price for a single family home on less than five acres for the annualized period ending March 31, 2007 is $522,500.

On Orcas, the median sales price is $492,000.

On Lopez, the median sales price is $422,500. Countywide the median home price is $483,250.

The median sales price for a home on less than 5 acres in San Juan County for year 2006 was $450,000. Decreased volume doesn’t necessarily equate to reduced sales prices as long as the market has a balance of supply and demand.

The median is a typical market price where half of the homes or lots sold for more and half sold for less.


On San Juan Island, year-to-date dollar volume is $29,053,927 compared to $36,693,532 in 2006. This reflects a decrease of approximately 19%. The comparison in the number of transactions is notable with 52 in 2007 compared to the 74 in 2006 which represents a 30% decrease. Due to the number of transactions sold in excess of $1,000,000, fewer transactions are needed to build the volume.

On Orcas Island, year-to-date dollar volume is $20,189,759 compared to $26,371,271 in 2006. This reflects a decrease of approximately 23.5%. Transaction count for 2007 is 43 versus 49 for the same period in 2006.

On Lopez Island, year-to-date dollar volume is $5,011,000. compared to $10,878,024 in 2006. Transaction count for 2007 is 13 versus 27 in 2006.

Year-to-date total volume for San Juan County is $56,840,686 which is a 31% decrease over the same period in 2006 which was $81,871,517.

Based on the 245 properties currently listed in the Northwest Multiple Listing Service for San Juan Island, and an average 29 closings per month in 2006, the market is balanced; and there is approximately an eight month supply of properties for sale.

National economists typically express that six months of inventory is a balanced supply; while less than six tends to favor the sellers, and greater than six is considered a “buyer’s market”. Historically, inventory grows in the spring as a surge of sellers interested in capitalizing on the season list their properties.

On San Juan Island, the average length of time on market is 145 days for all types of property for the first quarter closings.

Even with a 19% decrease in the first quarter, most agents on San Juan Island believe that 2007 will conclude very similar in volume to that of 2006. This impression is supported by the economic forecast for the Puget Sound Region which is very strong.

Real estate is local. Our real estate activity level is driven by our market demand. Reports of the real estate market nation wide can have a negative impact, as that information may influence a buyer to delay purchasing property in the Islands. With the growing inventory, buyers could be taking advantage of the strength of the local market.

The long term outlook remains very strong due to a projected demand that is based on nationwide demographics; a strong northwest economy; and the fact that hard to replace properties, such as can be found in the San Juan Islands, are increasing in value at greater rates than other properties.


Merri Ann Simonson spent 19 years in banking, then 12 years in San Juan Real Estate, and currently is the Designated Broker for Coldwell Banker San Juan Islands

(Statistical information is as per the SJC Real Market Data LLC reports and data compiled from the NWMLS by Coldwell Banker SJI )