Gray Dawn

I woke up one morning and realized that my hair had turned gray. People my age are not supposed to look old. But what surprised me was how fast it happened. As I look around I see lots of gray, some baldheads, a lot of white beards, and it's not just the women either. I fit right in now. We have an aging population in San Juan County. In fact, the percentage of people over 65 is the same here as it is in Florida. The rest of the nation will catch up with us eventually. There is no debating the fact that aging will occur and the staggering numbers of old folks will bring extraordinary economic and social changes with few parallels in human history.

San Juan County residents will get a glimpse into the future because we are once again ahead of the rest of the nation. One third of our population is retired. More than 40% of us are not in the work force. School enrollment has been in decline for many years now. We have an emerging aging crisis and it is sneaking up on us faster than my gray hair.

The aging crisis is the result of several colliding forces: falling birth rates and people living longer. Life expectancies keep rising. 80 used to be old. Now it seems that living until 80 and beyond is common. What are the implications of these trends, and what changes will we see locally?

The colliding forces of higher taxes and fewer workers to pay them add up to a crisis. We will see a mounting tax burden. Increased old-age dependency and declining levels of family support will cause a rise in the demand for services for the elderly. Health and senior service programs will need additional county workers, volunteers, and expanded facilities. Nursing homes and facilities that house and care for old folks will require additional funds in order to survive. Health care clinics will expand, as an aging population demands more services locally. Meanwhile retirement contracts including private retirement plans as well as Social Security and Medicare must be renegotiated or face bankruptcy. The baby boom will become the baby bust as economic pressures force huge changes.

The workforce will continue to shrink. Businesses will be unable to provide services they once offered. Service in the places you frequent like restaurants, stores, health clubs, even county services will be reduced. Fewer people will be willing to take the risk of investing in a new business that requires employees. And the County will be out competing with private business to attract workers bidding up wages and increasing the tax burden.

There is increasing immigration pressure due to the demand for services and fewer people willing to work. Numbers of workers who commute from the mainland to work in the islands has increased every year. The Hispanic community is a growing force in our local economy. It is hard to determine their numbers but they can no longer keep a low profile.

These same changes we see locally will change our nation in the future. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies Global aging will become not just the transcendent economic issue of the 21st century, but the transcendent political issue as well. It will dominate and daunt the public-policy agendas of developed countries and force the renegotiation of their social contracts. It will also reshape foreign policy strategies and the geopolitical order." We saw it here first.

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