02/07/2007: "Consensus is for the Birds"

Crows are black. Do we have consensus on this? Okay. Crows are black with big beaks that will peck at stuff in the back of your truck if it's not covered. Dogs left in the back will protect your stuff from crows but you can't trust them around groceries or garbage. Those are the facts.

During the many years that I lived and worked at the Orcas Ferry Landing I paid particular attention to the crows. They fly over everyday from their wild and remote nesting sites on the dark side of Shaw Island to work the ferry line for handouts and to snag groceries from the back of the trucks without dogs in them. These crows were all black.

One day I saw a crow with a few white feathers. In every respect this bird was a crow. A mutant crow but a crow nevertheless. Now if we had consensus that all crows are black then either this bird is not a crow, there was an affair with a seagull, or the consensus method for creating facts is somewhat flawed.

The mistake in our reasoning is precisely this: Consensus cannot create a fact. We begin with an assumption based upon our collective observation that all crows are black and by consensus this becomes fact. However, the fact that all crows are black is only as good as our original assumption, which is now false, because we had not seen every crow.

When we find a crow with white feathers we must conclude a couple of simple things: We assumed all crows were black by consensus even though we had not observed every crow and future genetic mutations or interspecies romantic love affairs, may occur that will produce white feathers in some crows. In other words, we don't always know everything and we can't always know what will happen in the future and the magic wand of consensus cannot turn assumptions into facts.

I appreciate that some of you are still reading this and patiently waiting for me to get to my point. Here it is. I would like to apply the reasoning above to the debate over global warming. I would like to argue that we should not use consensus to create facts about the future because it is not possible to know everything, especially the future.

To think so is falling into a Malthusian trap. In 1798, Thomas Malthus predicted that population would outstrip the food supply resulting in the death of millions. Since he didn't know the future he couldn't predict all possible factors like technology and how using new efficient farm techniques could produce the food necessary for the eventual survival of humankind.

Today there is consensus about the rise in the temperature of the planet. The preponderance of evidence points to this fact. However no one has actually come out and stated with certainty just what the correct temperature of the planet should be. In Earth's history temperatures have ranged somewhere between molten hot and glacial cold. Take your pick. Personally I'd prefer somewhere in the mid 70's. My fantasy has always been to have Hawaii in the San Juan Islands. I could adapt to that.

Anyway, people's reactions to global warming are interesting to observe. There is desperate panic in the media causing people to jump to irrational conclusions. This hysteria could result in extreme and disastrous policy decisions. On the other hand some scientists are questioning assumptions and as a result are scoffed at and trashed by the consensus group because they have seen crows with white feathers.

Regardless of your opinion about global warming, I think a calm rational approach to this problem will result in better decision-making. Remember, consensus is not always fact and we don't know everything especially the future.

We have consensus that there is at least a little time before the planet self-destructs. We should use that time to sort out assumptions and engage in a rational debate instead of trashing those who disagree with the oppressive dogmatism of the "all crows are black" activists.

Even though we don't know the future we can acclimatize ourselves to it. We can conserve fossil fuel, build dikes around cities we want to protect, build aqueducts to siphon off and pump rising sea water to refill once enormous inland seas. Once these new beaches are formed we can slather on the sunscreen because the surf will be up in Death Valley.

We are creatures that have a remarkable ability to adapt and change. For example, by experience I have adapted to the fact that you must hide stuff that you don't want messed with from dogs and crows. Do we have consensus on that?