09/23/2009: "Computer Model On 11 Swine Flu Deaths Is Worse Case Model"

A computer model on a pandemic flu outbreak concluded a “swine flu” (Novel Influenza A H1N1) outbreak could cause 11 deaths in SJ County, but that does not mean it will happen.

Dr. Frank James, the San Juan County Health Officer, said “if the community takes the proper precautions, it may avoid such a tragic outcome.”

The County currently has a supply of anti-viral medications to treat people who do get sick; and additional shipments of a vaccine that will protect most people from the disease should be available for people in high risk groups by mid October.

In response to Dr. Jame’s report to the SJC Board of Health this month, the board passed a resolution authorizing him to “exercise the full powers granted to him by the state legislature to control and prevent the spread of the H1N1 Influenza A virus in San Juan County.”

James reminded the Board the most important steps to avoiding spreading or becoming infected are to:
Cover your cough
Wash your hands
Stay home if you are sick.

More information can be found on the county website: http://sanjuanco.com/health/h1n1_2009.aspx

Flu is spread from person to person so limiting participation in group activities is another strategy in slowing the pandemic. The swine flu virus is different from seasonal flu in that has attacked younger people and children more than people over 50 years old, James said, so it is especially important that sick children are kept home.

Because children are more likely to spread the flu, the Health Department is working with county schools to monitor student absenteeism. The department will attempt to contact the parents of all children that do not come to school due to flu-like illness, and provide them with information and advice.